Taiwan. Experts on Nancy Pelosi’s visit: Not well thought-out provocation; fourth strait crisis

The eyes of the whole world are on Taiwan, which was visited by the President of the US House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi on Tuesday. The visit caused serious tensions on the Washington-Beijing line.

The People’s Republic of China recognizes Taiwan – also known as Chinese Taipei – as part of its territory.

Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan. “It is difficult to rationally explain this action”

– Nancy Pelosi’s journey was not very thoughtful. If we assume that the US strongly criticizes Russia for what it does during the war with Ukraine, doing this kind of diplomatic provocation is not entirely wise – assessed prof. Wawrzyniec Konarski from the Vistula Academy of Finance and Business in the “Point of View” program.

As he explained, “The Chinese are an emerging power, very sensitive about it and not joking.” He recalled that Taiwan is not recognized by most countries in the world.

In turn, Dr. Krzysztof Kawęcki, a historian and political scientist, assumed that Pelosi’s visit was part of the US strategic policy and was not an individual initiative.

– It is difficult to explain this “action” in a rational way. Undoubtedly, this will have an impact on the aggravation of Sino-American relations, and at the moment when the war in Ukraine is underway and the United States is supporting it, the question arises: Is America not opening a second battle front? he wondered.

SEE: Taiwan. Nancy Pelosi: The US will not abandon Taiwan

A moment later, however, he added: – On the other hand, perhaps the US is taking advantage of the clinch moment in the Russian-Ukrainian fights and wants to show that the Far East and the Pacific are also an area of ​​their influence.

Kawęcki expressed his hope that “at the moment we are not in danger of a world conflict, a nuclear war, but we are undoubtedly in the most dangerous situation since the end of the Cold War”.

Is the fourth Taiwan Strait crisis looming?

Pelosi’s visit was also discussed in the “Guest of the Events” studio. – Military maneuvers have been announced that will surround Taiwan from all sides, de facto from six directions. This is something that happened recently in 1995 and one may be tempted to say that we are at the beginning of the fourth crisis in the Taiwan Strait – explained Grzegorz Sienkiewicz, author of the blog “Taiwanese Dragon”.

Another of Bogdan Rymanowski’s interlocutors, Michał Bogusz, an expert on Chinese affairs at the Center for Eastern Studies, agreed with his assessment.

– The fourth Taiwanese crisis will last several months, at least until the 20th Congress of the Communist Party of China scheduled for this fall. I suspect that Beijing will try to prolong hysteria at least until March 2023, when the parliament will have to “tap” the decisions taken at the congress, he explained.

SEE: Taiwan. President of the US House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi has landed on the island

In his opinion, “there will be a lot of buzz, flexing muscles, proving that we showed the imperialists and their puppets in Taiwan where they belong, but in fact (the Chinese) are afraid of destroying the status quo in the Taiwan Strait.”

Bogusz emphasized that the Chinese leader Xi Jimping needs international tension to strengthen his political position in the country.

Taiwanese far from panic

Sienkiewicz, who is in Taiwan, said that the islanders are used to threats from China and that Tuesday’s tensions did not cause any panic.

– The public is rather positive about Nancy Pelosi’s visit. Admittedly, in Taiwan, most people support the Democratic Party, which is oriented towards the West and is determined not to submit to the PRC, he said.

Bogusz also explained that in Chinese Taipei there is no fear that a conflict could break out overnight.

– It is estimated that the earliest the Chinese will be ready to strike at the end of this decade. As of today, war and invasion are unlikely as both sides are not ready for it. The island itself is very hard to get. There are only a few places in Taiwan where a landing could be carried out. The Taiwanese army has been preparing for a possible invasion for 70 years, he noted.

Taiwan and the invasion of Ukraine

Kawęcki assumed that Pelosi’s arrival in Taipei might change Beijing’s attitude towards the conflict in Ukraine. China has been neutral so far.

– The question is whether they will not support Russia now? Experts presented the situation beyond the eastern border of Poland as a game of powers and, in the longer term, a desire to win Moscow to its side, he said in “Guest of the Events”.

Prof. Konarski, on the other hand, stated that the USA is a “hypocritical country” – Let us remember that at the time of the criminal war that the Russians are waging, there is also an unbelievable ordeal of Yemenis involved in a civil war, where one of the parties, Saudi Arabia, is supported by Biden – he said, acknowledging that “as usual it is about business.”

Kawęcki stated that the US’s main opponent is China, and “even in this context, he is not sure that the United States is unable to pay any price for Russia to turn its back on China.”

Washington described supporting Ukraine and supplying it with weapons as “a weakening of Russia”. He also stressed that Kyiv, while fighting for its sovereignty, also “pursues certain global interests of the US”.

SEE: Taiwan’s armed forces are getting ready for war. China does not want Nancy Pelosi to visit there

– The Chinese support the Russians tactically, because what is happening in Europe is a kind of experiment for them, we speak brutally, but it is so. Strategically this is not the case. The Chinese have their own need for living space and it is known that Russia, which would be weakened as a result of this war, may be vassalized by Beijing, Konarski emphasized.

“America is determined to compete with China and this is a very risky game,” concluded Konarski.

ap / wka / Polsat News, Polsatnews.pl

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