Why is China going to collapse in the next 10 years?

Along with the United States and Russia, China is one of the most powerful countries in the world. But if geopolitical analyst and author Peter Zeihan is to be believed, that won’t be the case for much longer.

Zeihan, 50, joined the well-known (and partly controversial) Joe Rogan podcast. In it, she predicted the collapse of mighty China in the next ten years. At first glance, it seems unlikely that one of the world’s most powerful countries would suddenly implode.

Justified with figures

It would be a very worrying prospect. Not only for the more than 1.4 billion Chinese, but also for the other 6.6 billion people in this world. If the country collapses financially, the entire world economy will suffer. Many of the products we use every day roll off the production line in China.

But what does Zeihan base his statements on? On a number of factors. First of all, China has an extremely strict corona policy. As a result, the Chinese population has become more vocal, much to the dismay of the Chinese Communist Party. Also, partly because of this, less was spent within the country’s borders, and Chinese production took a backseat.

Rising tensions between the US and China

China’s exports have also been somewhat lower recently. High inflation in many areas of the world is also related to this. People are just less generous. Furthermore, no other country has yet absorbed China’s reduced production. On the other hand, rising tensions between China and the United States are not helping. China is the world’s largest exporter. The country owes more than 20 percent of its GDP to export trade. As a result, import restrictions from other countries could affect China’s economy.

What also supports Zeihan’s theory is the increase in the national debt. Along with an increase in GDP at home, China’s debt book has also grown thicker. In itself, there are more countries with significant debts. The United States also has a sizeable national debt, and that superpower still stands. Still, it’s not convenient. China’s economic resilience is waning. This makes it difficult for the Asian country to absorb financial shocks in the future.

Population decline and worker shortage

In addition, the country has difficulties in keeping its population under control. Like the Netherlands, China is also experiencing population ageing, just on a somewhat larger scale. All those old ones need to be taken care of soon. That is why the one-child policy has been abolished. The Chinese can now have up to three children. Yet the United Nations expects the country to have just 800 million people by the year 2100. And the shortage of workers is already a problem for years to come.

Listen to the full podcast here.